OBN CYBER MEDI July 02, 2026
In an exclusive interview with OBN Horn of Africa, Professor Ale-mariam, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science and attorney at law in the United States, shared his assessment of Ethiopia’s current political and security landscape, focusing on the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, the activities of the TPLF, and the broader implications for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
Reflecting on the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), Professor Ale-mariam said, the accord was designed to end the conflict in northern Ethiopia and establish a comprehensive framework for lasting peace through legally binding political and security commitments. He described the agreement as a significant achievement in principle, stating that it laid the foundation for normalization and national reconciliation.
However, he argued that the peace process has been undermined by what he described as the TPLF’s failure to comply with key provisions of the agreement, particularly those related to Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR). According to him, DDR is not merely a technical process but a fundamental pillar of sustainable peace, intended to reduce the risk of renewed violence and promote long-term security and stability.
Turning to the current political environment, Professor Ale-mariam claimed that the TPLF’s recent actions pose a growing threat to Ethiopia’s national security. He asserted that the group’s activities go beyond legitimate political disagreement, arguing that they contribute to institutional instability, undermine constitutional order, and complicate efforts to achieve durable peace.
The professor also referred to what he described as U.S. visa sanctions imposed on certain TPLF hardliners. He argued that such measures are generally associated with serious concerns, including activities linked to terrorism, human trafficking, and illicit arms dealings. In his view, these actions reflect a broader message from the United States and the international community that they do not wish to see another destabilizing actor gain influence in the Horn of Africa.
Professor Ale-mariam further claimed that the TPLF’s activities extend beyond Ethiopia’s domestic political landscape. He alleged that the group has cultivated relationships with various regional actors, including elements in Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, as well as armed groups operating within Ethiopia. He characterized these alleged relationships as part of a broader strategy of proxy alliances aimed at advancing the group’s political objectives through regional instability.
According to the professor, this pattern demonstrates what he described as a longstanding tendency by the TPLF to align itself with actors whose interests converge around prolonging tensions rather than supporting peaceful political solutions.
Concluding the interview, Professor Ale-mariam described the TPLF’s current posture as one of “war-mongering,” particularly as Ethiopia prepares for the conclusion of its national dialogue. He argued that such actions run counter to the country’s ongoing efforts to strengthen constitutional governance, promote political reform, and consolidate peace.
He also maintained that Ethiopia’s National Dialogue process represents an important opportunity to advance reconciliation, inclusive governance, and long-term national stability. In his assessment, the success of the dialogue could significantly reduce opportunities for political destabilization and reinforce peaceful democratic processes.
Compiled by Addis Assefa //
